Weekly Outlook on Crude Oil - 6 Apr 2023

Crude oil prices jumped 6% on Monday after OPEC jolted the market with plans to cut more production. The Organization and Petroleum Exporting Countries announced on Sunday that they will start another production cut by 1.6 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023.

The latest pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd including a 2 million barrel cut last October, according to Reuter’s calculations, equal to about 3.7% of global demand. Market participants have been expecting that the oil market will tighten as expected growth in Chinese demand picks up strongly with the Asian economic giants.
 

                                                                                       Oil steadies after a big jump on OPEC commentary

However, oil prices fell on Thursday as weak U.S. economic data raised concerns over a potential global recession and demand reduction. Despite the further fall, prices have gained nearly 6% so far this week and headed towards three straight weeks, and managed to trade at $80 in the last trading session of the week.

On the NYMEX division, WTI crude oil prices extended their gains during the week and sustained above 100-Days EMA. Moreover, the prices also breached the prior swing highs and moved above $81 levels. On a weekly scale, the Stochastic showed positive crossover and sustained near the buying zone. The price had also moved above the Middle Bollinger Band formation, which suggests bullish strength for the near term.

On the MCX front, crude oil witnessed a sharp recovery from the bottom of 5300 to 6700 levels in just two weeks and managed to sustain above 6500 in recent weeks. Presently, the prices are hovering above the 100-day SMA but finding some hurdles at the 200-day EMA, which is acting as an immediate resistance zone for the prices. However, the ongoing fundamentals are supportive of the recent moves, so any positive action above 6700 could lead prices towards 7400 in the coming weeks.
 

So, based on the above parameters, we are expecting bullish moves in Crude Oil above the 6700 mark. On the downside, it may find support around Rs. 6500 /6200. However, on the upside, Rs. 7000 & 7400 levels would act as resistance to the counter.

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