Weekly Market Outlook for 20 Mar to 24 Mar

The nifty index corrected almost 1000 points from the prior swing highs of 17800 to 16850 levels in the last two weeks ahead of weak global cues and risk off sentiments. During the week, the market has fallen badly in the initial three trading sessions as investors were worried about the potential financial crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the U.S. However, in the last two trading sessions, the nifty50 index showed some pullback moves from the low of 16850 levels and managed to settle above 17000 marks on Friday session with 114 point gains. 

Nifty Today:

On the last day, the nifty index opened at a gap-up note and dragged down in the early session, made low at 16958 then reversed up, settled at 17100 levels. While Bank nifty recovered during the last hours and ended at 39598 levels with 465 point gains supported by the Fin Services & PVT Bank sector. On the sectoral front, Nifty IT & Realty has been the top contributor since morning, followed by the Metal & Energy sector. On the daily timeframe, the index has formed Bullish Bat harmonic patterns and reversed from the potential reversal zone of 16850 levels, but on the derivatives front, FII’s had trimmed some short positions but also initiated some fresh short positions, which indicate negative sentiments. However, the highest Put OI was seen at 17000 strike price followed by 16800 while on the Call side, the highest OI has been shifted to 17800 & 17500 strike price. So, based on the OI data, the broader range must be from 17000 to 17500 levels for the coming week.   

Nifty pulled up from the verge of correction

On the other hand, a few important data like ECB President's Speaks, FOMC Statements and Monetary Policy-GBP, have been lineuped, which can influence the market sentiments, so one should keep watch closely on the above data. Technically, the index has taken good support from the falling Trendline on the weekly chart and also the momentum indicator RSI is near to the oversold territory that suggests some pullback moves in the market. Hence, traders are advised to trade cautiously and keep a watch on global events and dollar movements for the near term.   

Nifty & Bank Nifty Levels: